Мартин Армстронг

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Сообщение Mikhael » 08 авг 2018, 20:38

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a global business cycle. The entire world economy NEVER peaks and bottoms together. This latest turning point of July 12th, 2018 (2018.529) has apparently provided a MAJOR warning that we just could be moving into a major Cycle Inversion from the perspective of the United States. What does that mean? It means that the USA may be moving into a serious high in 2020 against a backdrop of a decline for the world insofar as liquid assets (non-fixed). The China share market has just lost its status as king of the mountain in Asia as Japan has once again reclaimed that lofty position from a value perspective.

The ONLY markets, currency and economy moving against this global bearish trend into 2020 has been the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Index broke out above the simple Downtrend Line, whereas we do not see this in Europe or Asia.

When we look at the array of world currencies, it is hard to mistake the fact that the dollar is rising. The ONLY other currency to benefit has been Canada. This is reflecting a shift in global capital flows to North America. Canada has been to some extent benefited by its proximity to the United States and has offered some diversification for European and Asian capital outflows.

When we look at the Canadian share market index (TSE), we can see that the July 12th turning point produced the highest closing during July. By the time we reach the World Economic Conference in Orlando on November 16-17, 2018 (Friday & Saturday), we will be approaching the Pi turning point on November 22/23rd, 2018 the next week. Besides the US mid-term elections, we are facing a very critical people in Europe. November is lining up to be an important turning point in the currencies. This is shaping up to ensure that the Orlando WEC event will be a hot topic this year and we hope to strategically set the stage for the balance of the ECM wave from there onward into 2020.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 11 авг 2018, 15:28

What people have to understand is that the Federal Reserve is moving in the opposite direction with respect to its monetary base. The Adjusted Monetary Base is the sum of currency (including coin) in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, plus deposits held by depository institutions at Federal Reserve Banks. These data are adjusted for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This peaked with the Economic Confidence Model turn in 2015 on October 1st. The Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet and believe it or not, there has been growing a SHORTAGE of dollars contrary to those who keep saying the world is awash with dollars so buy gold, cryptocurrencies, or whatever.

I have been stating that (1) were are in a major bull market for the dollar, and (2) it is the US economy that is supporting the world. What I mean is simply this. Everyone from China to Europe is DEPENDENT upon trade with the USA because it is the US consumer who is the marketplace. The balance of the world CANNOT win a trade war with the USA. They have focused on selling to the USA rather than developing their own domestic consumer economies. China has shifted and understood that important distinction and has indeed turned its focus to developing a domestic economy. Europe has not and it is significant to comprehend that the structure of the European Union is disastrous. They want to PRETEND to be the federalized entity of Europe, but all 28 member states must agree on trade. This PREVENTS Germany from accepting Trump’s proposal to abolish all tariffs because France will not agree to an absolute free trade and that will prevent the EU from acting in the best interest of the whole. It requires unanimous consent.

Australia has imposed a 10% tariff on anything purchased overseas and they expect foreign businesses to collect their taxes. They call it a GST, but it is imposed on all products as a protective measure they claim for local businesses. FREE TRADE is simply not feasible politically while Trump gets all the blame. The rest of the world CANNOT win a currency war. So far, our computer has been spot on. We are headed toward a monetary reset in the years ahead but to get there, we must experience a STRONG dollar – not a WEAK dollar. The sooner these pretend analysts stop the same rhetoric that stems from the broken Quantity Theory of Money, the sooner we will begin to truly understand how the economy works. Turnkey is a live example of the most vital element of all – CONFIDENCE. When that is lost, this is what produces hyperinflation – NOT the quantity of money.

There is a SHORTAGE of US dollars on the trading desks around the world – not an excess. This is also what is behind the bid.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 12 авг 2018, 16:36

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Сообщение Mikhael » 17 авг 2018, 12:50

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Сообщение Mikhael » 26 авг 2018, 07:43

People really think we have free trade and somehow Trump is reversing that fact. This, of course, is how the press has portrayed the issue, but that is just far from the truth. Trump is now looking at putting a 20%-25% tariff on cars coming from Europe. Personally, I only have German cars so I would not like to see that outcome. But personal wishes are not something I can explore for analysis. What I can say is that far too much is being fudged.

Countries are using DUTIES as the alternative to tariffs. It has gotten so impossible, we can no longer create the mugs we always give away at every conference in the USA when the conference is in Europe or Asia. Our last two conferences in Asia required us to manufacture the mugs in the country of the conference because we cannot get them into the country even when we hand them out for free. To government’s nothing is FREE and then you have to negotiate the “duty” to pay based upon what you would have paid for a cup manufactured in their country.

On that score, I have to agree with Trump. He has offered a free trade deal to the EU dropping all tariffs if they do the same. France rejected. There should be no tariffs and NO duties. Just for once let there be free trade. It has NEVER existed. Before the income tax, the US-funded itself with excise taxes. Excise taxes are taxes paid when purchases are made on a specific good, for example, gasoline. Excise taxes are often included in the price of the product. There are also excise taxes on activities, such as on wagering or on highway usage by trucks. One of the major components of the excise program is motor fuel today. Now we have consumption taxes in this manner AND income taxes. Government is now funded by just shaking us upside down and inventing countless taxes so they do not have to report the total cost of taxes.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 03 сен 2018, 14:09

Our model is broader, and it extends back in time much further and incorporates all countries. This sort of civil unrest will rise in 2019 after the election cycle. It will not be just a race issue. It will be politically oriented and broader. Nonetheless, the Democrats will portray Trump and the Republicans as racists for the election fueling the fire of both race and class warfare.

We are preparing a report for the election cycle. This year is crazy. There are so many people in Congress calling it quits. The Republicans who will be defending 40 open House seats this fall compared with the Democrats’ 20 all because of retirement announcements. Even Speaker Paul Ryan told his colleagues he would not seek election. What is going on is that there are those in politics who see the handwriting on the wall. Politics is doomed. Those retiring seem to comprehend that incumbents may lose this round for the Trump Revolution is spreading even to the Democrats with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the 28-Year-Old Democratic in New York they call the “Giant Slayer” because she was a bartender and unseated Representative Joseph Crowley, a 19-year incumbent, and Queens, New York’s political stalwart who had not faced a primary challenger in 14 years.

While the Democrats are cheering and claiming with 40 Republicans retiring it proves that Trump has destroyed their party. Of course, this is their perspective always focused on the hate the rich. Effectively, the “rich” have become anyone who actually works. Ocasio-Cortez is a member of Democratic Socialists of America which is cheering the return of Marxism. No matter what you show that Marxism has resulted in more people dying in class warfare and the failure of Russia, Eastern Europe, Venezuela, and China among many South American socialist agendas, the Democrats refuse to look at the evidence of such failure.

The rumor on the Hill is that the Democrats will REVERSE everything that Trump has done with taxes, trade, the Wall and the environment. I have even been told that they want a 75% tax rate and that the top tax bracket should be lowered further. It has been the Democrats who are behind Geoengineering in the skies to reverse Global Warming. This is the entire problem with the United States. There is NO viable political system for the tax code looks like the brainwave of a mentally disturbed nut case. They do not understand that you cannot constantly move the taxes up and down. Companies leave just to gain stability. The Democrats in California are completely insane. They are now even considering letting illegal NONCITIZENS sit on public boards and commissions in California! This is all because they HATE Trump so much. They are advocating all-out economic class warfare that anyone sho donates to Republicans should be boycotted. They do not believe in free speech and the left has historically started more wars to force their opinions upon everyone else.



We are rapidly approaching the moment when the USA will collapse into political hatred and it will be the end of the “United” states. Like Rome, the diversity of political opinion will be devastating. Byzantine Iconoclasm was literally a war over icons. Some people took it literally that there should be no image of the gods. They would kill people who dared to even possess an icon. There were two periods in the history of the Byzantine Empire when the use of religious images or icons was outlawed at the demand of religious zealots in the Eastern Church who would fight over who would be emperor like we have today about appointing people to the Supreme Court.

The “First Iconoclasm”, as it is sometimes called, lasted between about 725 and 787 following Justinian II who was the first to place the image of Jesus Christ on a coin. This people lasted for about 62 years or twice the Pi Cycle. The “Second Iconoclasm” was between 814 and 842, which was reestablished by a usurper of the throne who then imposed his beliefs upon the empire. Leo V the Armenian (b 775; reign 813-820) became Emperor of the Byzantine Empire by forcing his predecessor, Michael I Rangabe, to abdicate and hand the throne to him. It was Leo V who initiated the second period of Byzantine Iconoclasm killing people who dared to protect their icons. Here is a solidus of Leo V. Note that there are no images of Christ. Leo V was eventually assassinated by supporters of Michael the Amorian, one of his most trusted generals, who then succeeded him on the throne. Iconoclasm was continued by Theophilos (b800-805; 820-842AD). The second Iconoclast period ended with the death of the emperor Theophilus. In 843 his widow finally restored icon veneration, an event still celebrated in the Eastern Orthodox Church as the Feast of Orthodoxy.



We are indeed rapidly approaching the time when we will need to just turn out the lights on the United States. This internal battle between socialists who will NEVER accept the position of others to live and let live will build and it will tear the country apart. Perhaps this is why it is a sin listed in the Ten Commandments not to covet thy neighbors goods. Perhaps they understood that this only leads to anarchy and will be the destruction of the United States.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 07 сен 2018, 09:15

Markets do not like UNCERTAINTY. These people who want to see Trump gone have no clue what may result in the aftermath. My concern is global. This is far beyond Trump. We have chaos in Turkey, Argentina spilling over into other Emerging Markets. We have politicians trying to punish Britain and German companies asking what are they just nuts in Brussels? Britain is the BIGGEST market for Germany cars in Europe. We have building uncertainty in Southern Europe. We have the head of Australia playing the game of musical chairs. We have new political parties emerging in Canada and Ireland. We have private debt concerns in China. We have South Africa following the mistakes of Zimbabwe and we have major change sweeping the Middle East. The discontent in Iran is building toward yet another revolution and in Japan, Abe Economics is failing. South America is in turmoil which has spread even to Mexico.

In all honesty, throughout my career, there have been places that are in turmoil and it was crystal clear where capital would move. I honestly have to say I have NEVER witnessed a period quite like this. There is no place that is a safe haven at this point. The entire world is just coming unglued. All we can do is now rely on the computer for personal opinions will be renders probably the most dangerous things upon which to base forecasts. My concern about US politics stems from our computer. Here is the array on 3rd party trends out into 2029. The people who hate Trump so much may be crying later if he is forced out for they will find their lives completely destroyed. We have a Panic Cycle arriving in Politics in 202 and again in 2024. The presidential elections will be 2020 and 2024. Note that both Panic Cycles are aligned with these events. I am NOT joking about blood in the streets. Those who hate Trump so much right now will be the very people hunting others who disagree with them.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 11 сен 2018, 07:47

What you are looking at be it politics or markets, the way in where we respond to each is the same. People act like herds of animals and we move instinctively according to everything and everyone around us.

Without investigating the past there is no possible way we will ever understand the correct question to ask. People get all emotional about Trump. They just hate his guts and if he fell to the ground on fire, they would not even piss on him until he was dead. You just mention his name to some of these people and they will call you a racist. The very same identical response was hurled at anyone in Britain who voted for BREXIT. They were calling them racist there too. A friend of mine there told his wife and children not to discuss BREXIT with anyone because of this same sort of hatred that was emerging in Britain.

From a purely technical perspective VOID of political affiliation, emotion or hatred, Trump is what we classify as a FALSE MOVE. He is the calm before the storm. He has tried to reverse the course of the nation lowering taxes and trying hard negotiations on trade to restore the manufacturing jobs to Americans. What I mean by saying he is the CALM BEFORE the storm will invoke hate mail from those you hate him. But look at this chart. The market will ALWAYS make a correction in the opposite direction of the major trend. Trump in this context is a correction within the decline and fall of Western society, but he will not reverse the trend.

This is what unbiased research reveals. Markets and politics will ALWAYS move counter-trend first and then resume the major trend. Trump was a reflection of the rising discontent with the system as a whole. It was Trump v career politicians. Those who just hate Trump are stupid for they do not understand what is in motion here. They want things to resume without Trump and that trend leads to the collapse of the nation. That statement does not mean that Trump can even reverse the trend. That too is foolish to expect. He has created a small correction for now. It will not last and one way or the other the major trend will resume. I personally do not like that realization. But this is not about my opinion, wishes, or dreams. My clients do not want my OPINION, but what does the computer show. Plain and simple. Trump is just the correction and the trend will resume to our political disintegration.

And as to those who ask if I would ever consider the job, my answer remains NO WAY!!!!!! They would assassinate me anyway before my hand hit the book. The best I can hope for is to contribute after the crash and burn.

We MUST be on guard for at the very least, our models show that there is no way government is going to survive. This strongly suggests that our model, which also shows a dramatic rise in share market prices, will enter a Vertical Market which is the most difficult to trade because of the collapse in confidence. Venezuela is a living example of what happens in the share market with the collapse in confidence in government. Trump is only the counter-trend move. There has to be a larger number of people who can’t wait to have a party when he is thrown out of office. They are only cheering for the demise of our country and are too biased to ever open their eyes.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 16 сен 2018, 20:28

AMong the rocks, occasionally there is a flower that manages to find the light. That is our task here. The worst thing about Trump crisis is the media. They are spinning such hatred it is unbelievable. That gives me fear because the computer has been projecting the upturn in civil unrest. Many people cannot stand Trump because of what he says or Tweets. They are unable to separate the person from the role of the president. That is a very dangerous situation for therein lies this hatred that is brewing over what they think is Trump, but in reality, it is the conflict between left and right that we are headed into. This is why the Financial Capital of the World will migrate to China after 2032. We are incapable of getting along with each other. One side wants to be left alone and the other blames all their own failures on people who have more.

This is the collapse of Socialism. Russia and China experienced the collapse of Marxism in 1989. Add Pi (31 years) to that and we end up with 2020. It is also a Presidential election year. As I have stated, Trump is NOT the change in the long-term trend – he is the calm before the storm or the FALSE MOVE. Now people cannot even see how he can possibly be the calm. He is the “calm” because it was a civilized democratic election – not a coup.

In other words, Trump may be the last civilized politician to be actually elected. He is the counter-trend that attempts to bring the economy back in the opposite direction (i.e. tax reduction, trade to create domestic jobs, draining the swamp). But this is not a trend that will last. It is the FALSE MOVE before the Phase Transition. The people who voted for Trump was a vote against the career politicians. They think they won. But the system is conspiring to take control back and that included Republican and Democrat career politicians. We are going to face much more violent elections in the future that is why Trump is the calm. He may be the last to be elected in such a manner. For the system cannot survive and the career politicians will turn to extract more taxes from the people to try to save their fiefdom.

We are witnessing the same trend throughout Europe. This is by no means limited to Trump and the USA. The economic system is crumbling and we are all yelling at each other over Trump, Merkel, May, etc, we are distracted from observing the big picture. Take down Trump, Merkel, or May, and you will create uncertainty and that is the secret ingredient for volatility.

The flower that will appear between the rocks is what emerges after the Crash & Burn. Hopefully, it will be freedom and not authoritarianism.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 21 сен 2018, 18:11

Regardless of your political persuasion be it for or against any of these political issues, the importance is really the impact upon CONFIDENCE. If you are for or against Trump, we still have one thing in common. We just want stability and some sense of the future to bank on. For example, if Trump were to go down, the impact upon the world market could be very dramatic and how we then stage ourselves to survive this type of financial chaos is critical. It is the same situation in Europe. If Italy pulls the cord to get out, the Euro cannot survive. What I hear from Behind the Curtain is that the ECB may be forced to cut its bond purchases by 50% and there are even those demanding Quantitative Easing MUST end by the end of the year. Draghi has DESTROYED the bond markets in Europe. Stopping QE will result in interest rates going up dramatically.

As I have said, Trump is the Counter-Trend or FALSE move. I fear what comes afterward be it now or in 2020. My experience has been that the political machine will NOT reform or look at the crisis in motion economically REGARDLESS or who is in office. Be it Democrat or Republican, they will hunker down to support the status quo of the system and that is the bottom line.

All this chaos with Trump reflects how serious the situation has become. The career politicians are desperate to get control back but they will not reform or care about the country and I seriously doubt that Trump really understands the gravity of our situation right now. So welcome to the year from Political Hell because this undermines confidence and creates UNCERTAINTY and that is the moth of volatility. So, there is no point in getting all uptight for or against Trump, Theresa May, or any Juncker in Brussels. The computer does not show that ANYONE will be able to reverse the direction we are headed into. This is merely our fate.

Step back and look at politics as the source of the moves that await us. Getting rid of Trump will only add to the uncertainty sooner than later and we have nobody on either side of the aisle who has a clue of what needs to be done or what is coming around the corner. So, look at this objectively. This is about understanding what is behind the trading strategy. That’s it. Nothing more. Nobody can save the day. We have to save ourselves. The computer is objective. It does not vote. I trust its projections for it is detached emotionally.
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