Мартин Армстронг

где деньги, Зин?

Сообщение Mikhael » 11 фев 2017, 10:48

Trump & Gold Standard
Trump has surrounded himself with a few people who believe that a new Bretton Woods conference will be necessary and they wrongly believe that a return to a gold standard will be beneficial. What they fail to comprehend is that we have had many gold standards in the past and they all failed. Why? Because government can borrow and as long as they can do that, fixing the money supply will not create utopia. It will go bust in a huge way just as the Swiss tried to peg their currency to the euro to prevent the capital inflows.
In terms of gold being involved, this is indeed a throwback to barbarous relic of the past because the financial system does not match the idea of gold being money. The problem has never been whatever we use as a standard. The real problem is the people who manage government.
The most direct solution is simply to eliminate all borrowing. The Roman Empire lasted for 1,000 years simply because they didn’t have the modern option of debt financing. There were no Roman equivalent to government bonds. The government owned all the mines. They effectively funded their operations by about 80% tax collection and 20% was funded by the creation of new money. This was a very significant burden on the Roman economy, which was pre-industrial for the most part and at least 75% of its economy was involved in the production of agriculture. Virtually all the taxes and rents raised by the imperial government were spent on the military. The military consumed about 80% of the imperial budget in 150AD.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 24 фев 2017, 10:55

This year, 2017, is the beginning of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. While Greece is popping up on the financial radar, the Euro rescue in Portugal has also completely failed to reverse the trend of the country. There has been no effective relief from the debt crisis in Southern Europe. The debt in Portugal is also once again as high as before the crisis of 2010. The 78 billion euros of the European taxpayers money did nothing to reverse the economic trend, but in fact the funds simply went to save the banks.

IBEUUS-Y TEK TO 2020 1-22-2016Politicians really should be criminally prosecuted for trying to manage an economy. They have no experience and their own political careers always come first. As I have stated before, when the Euro was being planned, the commission in charge attended our World Economic Conference in London. I warned them that the Euro would fail unless the plan consolidated all the debts of member states. They said they understood the problem, but that the European people would never vote for that plan and so they wanted to get the currency through first and deal with the debt later.

That Phase II never came and as a result, as the euro then rallied from 80 cents to the dollar to about $1.60, all PREVIOUS debt of member states DOUBLED in real cost. Joining the euro effectively destroyed Southern Europe and the politicians still cannot figure this out. It is as simple as you borrowed a foreign currency to buy your house and then that currency double in price. You now owed twice the amount in your home currency.

Crisis-AheadMeanwhile, the new US government wants to put US first returning to the age of mercantilism. Donald Trump also fails to grasp that forcing Americans to buy manufactured products in the USA, is forcing the consumer to subsidize inefficient American labor. You cannot tinker with the free markets. Trump’s concept of world trade and jobs falls short of reality of what free markets are all about exactly why the Eurozone is collapsing.

Welcome to the world financial crisis. We can make it better – but we have to PREVENT politicians from playing with the economy.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 05 мар 2017, 23:03

Standard & Poor’s (S & P) is being touted as once again trying to influence political elections as they did in Britain without success. While the US Congress wants to investigate Russia trying to influence US elections, they should look at the US track record of influencing foreign elections by the CIA and also the private credit rating agencies. S&P said Britain would be downgraded it if voted for BREXIT.

S&P’s economist, Moritz Krämer, claims that a victory for the Front National with its top candidate, Marine Le Pen, in the French presidential elections would probably have far-reaching implications for the country’s financiers. This bogus analysis is targeted at the intention of Le Pen to get France out of the euro and reinstate the franc.

Krämer, head of the Standard & Poor’s government bonds section, claims rather absurdly that in such a case France’s insolvency must be declared. He reportedly told the press: “That is clear. If a debtor does not comply with the contractual obligations against the creditors – which is also the currency of the payments – we would declare a payment failure. He added: “Our current AA rating for France, however, means that this is unlikely at the moment.”

The nonsense of this statement demonstrates the total lack of credibility. If France pulled out of the Euro, nearly 40% of its debt is held by the ECB. It would seem that any risk of a French default would send the Eurozone into crisis – not France. The French franc would be an excellent way to reduce the debt and revitalize the French economy away from the deflation imposed by Germany.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 11 мар 2017, 16:17

This is the year of political hell. The question is not about supporting one side or the other. This is a time that calls for us not to be small petty creatures but a case that requires rational human beings, which seems to be more impossible with each passing day. Never did there arise a period that has witnessed any generation devolve into such agitations in political views surrounded by every considerable danger to our way of life and the survival of our government structure. The imprisoned winds of the Romans symbolized by keeping the doors to their Temple of Janus closed during peace and opened during war have indeed been let loose, but this is predominantly for civil war.

CONFIDENCE rules everything. It is critical upon what society believes. With all the turmoil in politics, even with the Congress in the hands of the Republicans, they still lack the votes for major reform. Then there is the rise of the left hell bent upon bringing down Trump at all costs to preserve the elite and status quo. The majority are generally fools. They actually believe the words of politicians to their doom.

Nevertheless, it is the unsettling disturbance within politics that reflects the crumbling level of CONFIDENCE. With that, all bets are off. Capital becomes confused. Looking at the Euro, the turmoil politically in Europe one would look to sell the Euro and buy dollars. Then we turn and look at the United States and all we see is incredible infighting and a battle waged by the left to prevent any populist reforms whatsoever. We hear politicians and the press demeaning the rise of “populism” as if the people are just fools who are clueless and do not really know what they are demanding. Thus, the political elites take solace, as does the mainstream media, that this too shall pass and they will be back in control. Meanwhile, the Euro flounders and rises to push out the shorts to confound traders as it must do before it can collapse.

Petro-dollar-2Everything Property down - Rhinges upon this uprising in politics. The bitterness that is rising between left and right is the direct cause of the imprisoned wind of political change being unleashed. The economic question to emerge from all this mess is rather simple. If we do not trust banks, government debt, and commodities remain under pressure from the rise in the dollar and increased production as in oil and gold production reaching record highs in Australia during 2016, and real estate declines in real terms for the majority of the United States while it pushes higher in places such as Finland or some cities as foreign capital still tries to get off the grid.

superbowlThen when we look at entertainment, which typically soars in good times, we see that viewership is declining in sports to Hollywood. This too is a confusing trend to most but it reflects the underlying instability in public confidence. With both sports and Hollywood in decline, the omens do not appear to be bright and sunny.

Hollywood OscarsTaxes have risen consistently in Europe, but to a greater extent compared to the United States. Yet still, in the USA, the burden of Obamacare, which was really a ploy to help big corporate hospitals by pushing the cost to the people, namely the youth, who the government also handed to the bankers removing all bankruptcy protect for student loans that deprive them of getting ahead to begin with in this economic race to the top.

Game DoctorThen we have a meltdown in pensions all because of central banks adopting the elitist view that lowering interest rates will stimulate demand. The arrogance of Larry Summers in proposing that negative interest rates will force people to spend when lower interest rates failed to “stimulate” the economy is only matched by his public admitting that he himself is incapable of forecasting the economy.

The inability of the elite to forecast the economy reduces this entire ting to a game that we say as children – doctor. We just keep taking out body-parts until the patient either dies or we find the cure – normally the former and never the latter.

Summers are crew have simply set the stage for the Pension Crisis. They have undermined this entire economic system and there is no way to put this back together to prevent the next complete economic meltdown. They will respond as always and first try to seize all private pensions to merge with failed government pensions at the state and local levels as if this is going to be some permanent fix.

It is really stunning just how naive those who want to rule the world truly are. I argue against conspiracy theories because it elevates these people to a level of intelligence they do not possess. To stimulate the economy, the Fed bought-in 30 year bonds in theory that would lower mortgage rates. But the banks would not lend money. There are now more people working the bank offices and risk departments have done far more damage to the economy preventing business than expanding it. Everything is a risk. So the banks themselves never “stimulated” the economy and begged the Fed to create a facility called excess reserves that reached almost $2.8 trillion. So the money everyone claimed would be inflationary yet gold collapsed, can be easily seen that it never made its way into the economy for the Fed defeated its own QE measures. Then Draghi taking interest to negative territory only resulted in European banks using US branches to ship their funds to dollars and post it at the Fed to collect free money without risk.

Then we have the Obama-Boehner debt ceiling deal that now comes to a head in March. As always, they never solve a problem, they just postpone it. Obama postponed the Cadillac tax in Obamacare until 2017 and the debt ceiling as well so he would not go down in history for this financial crisis. Those in Washington do not even take this serious. You have the Democrats who will not vote to increase the debt ceiling with any cuts to their social programs. Then you have one segment of Republicans who will not vote to raise the ceiling at all, another group who will vote to raise it only if there is a fig leaf pretending to cut something, and the bulk of Republicans who also love to spend money and are indistinguishable from Democrats. There is simply no way to deal with this issue until the system goes bust. The debt that expires can be replaced without increasing the debt ceiling, but the interest still has to be paid. The Treasury can refuse to pay some things that were funded and shift that money to interest to prevent a bond default. But while this will help a short-term bounce in the Euro, it is by no means a long-term solution.

Then the question turns to where do we put our money? The majority of people believe the stock market is overvalued. The popular myths are that the PE Ratio at 25:1 says crash and that if interest rates rise, sell stocks. This has kept the majority of people out of the market. Retail participation remains at record lows. So exactly how is a crash supposed to take place when the bulk of the people are not in the market? For whatever reason, the talking heads on TV appear on all the shows because they are drumming up business rather than doing the research to actually provide real forecasts. A simple look at the historical PE Ration reveals that the historical high took place in 2009 – at the bottom of the crisis not the peak in a bull market. When things get bad and you do not trust bonds, government, or banks, where do you go? Real estate is nice for some part of a cash holding, but it is taxed to hold it and it is not liquid. Stocks are the ONLY game in town – but the blue-chips and not speculative issues.

DowIntRates-1929Then the myth of interest rates up and stock down is another classic nonsense theory touted by the talking head of TV. Not a single one of them has ever bothered to check the facts behind this one either. Andrew Melon said Gentlemen buy bonds (not blonds) for traditionally bonds was the place capital would flee to when the stock market declined. However, look closer. The Fed raised interest rates doubling them between 1927 and 1929 and the stock market doubled.

rioters_tipped_car_300_clr_12700The analysis that is put out there on TV by the talking heads is just pathetic. Nothing that these people say seems to have any rational foundation. In politics, everything once to discredit someone else claiming to check facts. Well, that is not the way it is in analysis.

Underlying all these trends in politics and the rising tide of civil unrest, the combination for all of this becomes more and more unstable. Consequently, so will the economy and capital respond less for profit and begin to shift seeking safety. The undoing of the EU and the assault to stop any reforms in the Trump agenda, are critical to say the least. They will undermine the confidence in market & alter the trend.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 14 мар 2017, 20:34

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Сообщение Mikhael » 16 мар 2017, 13:01

QUESTION: Hi Martin, How is the dollar supposed to continue to rise when Trump and all of his cabinet members want a weaker dollar? They constantly blame others with currency manipulation, all the while they are in fact manipulating the dollar lower with their comments. Hello pot, meet kettle!!! The last 2 Fridays the dollar has sold off drastically wiping out the entire week gains even on positive US market news. When will the dollar index start to breakout again?

ANSWER: Nobody can manipulate the currency market forcing it to change trend. Trump will fail because he cannot manipulate the dollar down when the FX market’s $5.3 trillion per day in trading volume dwarfs the equities and futures markets. Yes, the Treasury has less than $150 billion in its bad to try to manipulate the currency. Good luck. Trump is wrong about China manipulating its currency. You see China going after Bitcoin trying desperately to prevent capital flight. There is nothing Trump can do to prevent the rise in the dollar when you have Europe on life-support as is the case in Japan, and China keeps trying to stop its citizens from putting money offshore.

Even banning all the government together cannot reverse the global capital flows. If the economics of Europe are in crisis and election after election seeks to exit the EU, there is far more at stake than just politics. We are looking at a crisis in European banking as their reserves are made of of Euro members. The ECB hold 40% of member states bonds. A breakup of the Eurozone holds far more chaos than anything you have read about Europe – AND THAT IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT.

We are preparing an institutional risk report on this subject, and it is massively under-reported and not even comprehended. Trump will fail because he and his team lack the scope of international understanding. If we look only at trade, the share of manufactures in world merchandise trade fluctuated in the range of 55-60% between 1973 and 1985, then increased sharply, reaching 75% by 1995. One might expect total recorded world trade, exports plus imports, over all countries to equal financial flows payments plus receipts. But in fact, during 1996–2001, the former was $17.3 trillion, more than three times the latter, at $5.0 trillion. The problem is our accounting system for trade. To reduce the trade surplus Japan had with the USA during the 1990s, we instructed our clients to buy gold on the COMEX and take delivery. The golds was thus exported and resold again into London. The trade surplus was reduced for there is no distinction between a manufactured product and raw commodities.

Likewise, most financial capital flows are not recorded at all. Financial transactions between international financial institutions are cleared by netting daily offsetting transactions. Hence, U.S. banks have claims on Japanese banks for $10 billion and Japanese banks have claims on U.S. banks for $12 billion. Therefore, the net flow recorded in the transactions will be cleared through their central banks with only $2 million from the United States to Japan. Then if the purchase of the good in the USA by Japan are financed, the goods may travel but no money moves between the countries. Since the collapse of Bretton Woods, the introduction of the floating exchange rate system has rendered the global capital flows gibberish from a formal accounting standard since the value of the dollar rises and falls making comparisons impossible using a system that was designed with a fixed exchange rate system in mind. Since the 1970s, this has resulted in a sustained and unexplained balance-of-payments discrepancies in both trade and financial flows.The unrecorded capital flows in netting out positions distorts the real picture. We have to obtain raw data to overcome these problems and then run it through the filter of floating exchange rates to come up with any hope of understanding capital flows.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 17 мар 2017, 09:32

QUESTION: Marty; It seems that the left is winning in preventing Trump from really reforming anything and the Republicans themselves are divided over Obamacare. Do you see this change?

Thank you for what you do. It is striking how on point you have been.

ANSWER: The Democrats led by Summer and Pelosi are fighting tooth & nail to save socialism. They always preach that they stand for the poor, but they take money from the rich. Hillary’s comment that you have to have a public and private agenda is no joke. This is standard operational procedure for ALL politicians in Washington. This was not just Hillary’s scheme – they all do this. The Democrats are tearing the country apart and in their quest to stop Trump at all costs. That cost will be the United States as we have known it. They are going way too far this time.

Obamacare has hopelessly screwed the country. It is the exploitation of the youth to fund health care costs for the older generations after the Clintons screwed them and made their student loans non-dischargeable in bankruptcy after getting a degree that is proving valueless. This is like in law. I ask you when was the last time you beat your wife. Now, you are on the defensive side to prove you did not beat your wife. You call your wife to the stand and she testifies you never beat her. I turn to the jury and say, she only said that because she feared you would beat her again. A false charge dominates everything and you spend all of your time trying to prove you never beat your wife. This is Obamacare.

The Republicans are hopelessly lost. They cannot fix the system. The only way to do this is to the scrap the entire mess. Anyone who could not obtain insurance should simply be put on Medicare. Nancy Pelosi is just a worthless politician hell bent of maintaining a corrupt system that is doomed. She said: “The Republican bill is one of the largest transfers of wealth from working families to the richest people in our country — Robin Hood in reverse.”

This is the greatest transfer of wealth from the younger generation into the pockets of insurance companies who lobby and give her money. Insurance company PACs always donate directly to Pelosi. Here is a list of the Insurance companies donating to the Democrats to keep Obamacare rolling and Starr Insurance is at the top. There is no money going to the “rich”; it goes to insurance companies. My personal insurance doubled as did my deductible and then I have coverage for young children I do not have but it’s there by law and I have to pay for it. The joke has become that you can just walk into a bar and tell the girls to line up, no worries, you are covered for unlimited maternity leave and children and there is no marriage requirement or age limit. That may be the only way to your money’s worth out of Obamacare.

If I were Trump, I would mandate all insurance policies must be reinstated pre-Obamacare. I would NATIONALIZE health insurance and make them function the same as Utilities. Yes, it would be an anti-free market, but the political system is such that the “free market” means they can bribe people like Pelosi to keep the money rolling in. Impose term limits, and then this measure would not be needed. But I do not see how this can be accomplished without a revolution.

Insurance companies must be compelled to apply for any rate increase whatsoever. They should not be allowed to cancel your insurance either. That is like going to a casino to play poker and they remove all the aces from the deck to make sure you cannot have 4 aces.

I would also impose Tort reform and provide a specific table of what you get for what type of injury. In law, it is cheaper to kill someone than it is to injure someone because you will have to pay all sorts of legal fees and an award that can be greatly exaggerated. Kill someone in an accident and it’s a flat award far less than injury in most cases.

Point of No ReturnThen you have the Democrats and the left, allegedly funded now by Soros, deliberately creating civil unrest to keep the socialist system intact. However, we have crossed that point of no return. The silent majority who voted for Trump have been pushed as far as they can go. Remove Trump, and we will descend into civil war. There will be no other democratic process to save the future left for these people who see things always getting worse and a future that holds nothing but declining living standards.

We have crossed that point of no return and this is really a battle for the very freedom of civilization. The left is never satisfied with allowing people to make their own decisions. I have been in discussions and the undertone is always the same. They hate anyone who makes more than they do and they covet whatever anyone else has and feel wronged that they are being cheated out of the same thing, but never wish to work for the same goals. The bottom line has always been that whatever society earns, belongs to the state and the state decides how much they are allowed to keep.

So no, I am not optimistic about the future. This will be the next great confrontation with not much difference from the Communist Revolutions of 1917-1918. What the Democrats did with Obamacare will only lower the living standards and the will premiums escalate out of control, consuming a larger part of personal disposable income. That lowers the economic growth consuming money people would be spending on other things. This is the GREED of insurance companies who are perhaps far worse than the bankers ever were. They own the Democrats and the press pretends this is a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich when it is the exploitation of the youth and no money goes to the “rich”. It is going to the Insurance companies who have paid the Democrats to impose Obamacare on the nation.

While people like Whoopi Goldberg have now come out and denied that she said she would leave the country if Trump were elected, many people claimed they would leave but are still here. The Rev. Al Sharpton said: “If Donald Trump is the nominee … I’m also reserving my ticket to get out of here if he wins. Only because he’d probably have me deported anyhow.”

Because the Democrats under Obama have set in motion the greatest hunt for taxes in human history, it is becoming impossible to do business. We have three accounts at one bank. I walked in to open a fourth for the Florida operation. I was told since it was a Delaware corporation, I had to send myself a letter to Delaware, prove I received it, and then they would open the account. When I said I had three accounts with their bank, they responded: that does not matter. With every new account, we have to start from scratch. I walked out without opening the business account. If the Democrats force Trump out or tie the government in knots so nothing gets done, I may have no choice but to leave, just to do business. This is how insane everything has become. The same thing happened with our payroll company. I was told to set up another payroll account in Florida. They too had to proceed as if they did not know me when it was the same person I have spoken to for the last 5 years. The whole thing is just getting completely nuts – Papers Please!
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