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Сообщение Mikhael » 14 апр 2018, 15:25

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Mikhael
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Сообщение Mikhael » 21 апр 2018, 16:11

Many people have written in asking the same question:

“My question is as follows. Since we are all connected in this world. Will there be any place at all that will not be affected by a WW3? “

So far, we do not see anywhere in the developed world that will be unaffected. That does not mean it would be destroyed, just impacted economically. We are running our models all the time waiting for a glimpse of such an indication. We will certainly let everyone know if the computer finds such a place. What it appears to be is the destruction of the West’s economy. This seems to be connected largely to the collapse of socialism and government promises. It even appears that many governments are deliberately trying to instigate a war that they can use as an excuse to suspend debt payments which would allow them to deny their fiscal mismanagement for decades.
The computer has been projecting the collapse in sovereign debt on a global scale. Anyone with half a brain can see something is seriously wrong that the national debts just keep growing and we borrow money endlessly with no intention of paying anything back. You have to be a full moron to have created such a system that never ends. Even without war, we are headed into a Sovereign Debt Crisis which is inevitable.

As I have stated, interest expenditure will exceed military spending in the USA in 2019. We can see that the national debt as a percent of GDP has been steadily rising in a breakout mode since the low established during the 2nd quarter 2001. We reached a 13-year peak during the 1st quarter of 2014 and bottomed again with the Economic Confidence Model the 3rd quarter 2015 (2015.75). We have rallied once again making new highs and we are headed for the next high in 2020. Thereafter, the turning points will be 2027 and 2038.
So welcome to the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The debt turned up exactly with the 2015.75 turning point. As interest rates rise, we are on schedule for a real explosion in debt. The higher the debt to GDP rises, the greater the risk that the debt will force higher taxes resulting in lower economic growth. While everyone bashes the USA because it has the largest debt, it also has the largest economy. The debt to GDP in China exceeded 250% at the end of 2017.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 22 апр 2018, 08:58

QUESTION: At first, I thought you were just pro-Trump. But I have seen you criticize him on a number of things from trade to Syria. Do you think Trump has poisoned the well with regard to politics? What comes after him?

HY

ANSWER: Actually, your question is constructed upon a political fallacy. You assume that ANY politicians can really change the game. Many conservatives credit Reagan for bringing down Communism. True, he talked tough and applied pressure militarily. However, communism was failing. True, he yelled to tear down the Berlin Wall. But proof that this was just coincidence was the fact that China collapsed FIRST – then the Berlin Wall.

To say that Trump has poisoned the nation is a similar fallacy. The nation is HIGHLY divided and it did not matter who stood up against the career politicians – the economy is pushing the change. To blame Trump for the chaos in politics and the nation is the same mistake of attributing the fall of Communism to Reagan.

Socialism is collapsing because the system was never designed properly and politicians will always pursue their own self-interest. As pensions collapse so will socialism.

To blame Trump for the discontent is rather strange. This has been building up for decades. He is the symptom, not the cause. Reagan was also the symptom and not the cause. We have to stop throwing all the blame or credit to a head of state. Nobody can change the global trend. They are simply going to be driven by it.

The real crisis is that people think that if they can just get rid of Trump, somehow everything will go back to the way it was. THAT will never happen. We are in a trend that will not conclude under 2032. Trump is a reaction to people getting fed-up with the endless lies of career politicians. This is by no means just in America. I am in Europe and it is getting really bad here as well.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 28 апр 2018, 22:48

China is on its way to reaching the title of the Financial Capital of the World post-2032. However, that is also NOT going to be accomplished all on its own. In part, this is the moving trend and the shift our computer has been forecasting also because the West is in a Sovereign Debt Crisis and by raising taxes and imposing stiff regulations to try to keep the game going, GDP in the West will decline.

Nevertheless, China has some adjustment it must go through before it reaches that goal. It will surpass the EU, but the EU is hard at work of just trying to protect the jobs of bureaucrats rather than to actually make Europe a better place to live. Right now, China’s Debt to GDP stands at 250% mainly because to stimulate their economy, they actually lent money to people. The Western government bought their own bonds back to the “indirectly stimulate” the economy which never made it to the people. This is why Europe is still in deep trouble. The US took the bad loans from the banks and stuffed them in Freddie & Fannie. The EU left the bad loans on the books of the banks because it was seen as a bailout for Southern Europe. Now we have a banking crisis in Europe that never ends.

China’s debt problem is quite different. On the back of a boom in property prices, household borrowing has been climbing for the past 10 years straight. We are now approaching the correction point in this trend. The borrowing had expanded at a pace that exceeded the biggest speculative booms in the West. Now, some $6.7 trillion in personal debt also exists and this is now 50% of GDP. Private debt is now approaching crimping consumer spending power and therefore lies the recession ahead.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 20 май 2018, 22:10

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Сообщение Mikhael » 01 июн 2018, 17:40

Deutsche Bank has now been classified as a problem bank by FDIC and has been included in a list of banks to be watched. This is the biggest bank in Europe. It cannot be merged within Germany with Commerce Bank for there is just not enough equity to overcome the derivative losses. The only other candidate is BNP, but that is a French bank. This is where the fairytale of Euroland ends. They wanted to create a single currency, but they were unwilling to actually merge the economies. This is why our sources in Italy argue they are now an occupied country. They are dictated to but and request for help is rejected. This is what the “remain” crowd argue for against BREXIT?

A merger of BNP with Deutsche Bank would mean Germany is subservient to France. That is not “politically” acceptable. The entire “BAIL-IN” scheme was NOT because the government wanted to hold banks “responsible” but because a bailout of banks in one country would be seen as a transfer of money from one country to another. This exposes why the Euro is in serious trouble. There is ONLY the idea of a single currency and then Brussels will dictate what everyone else must do, but Brussels refuses to take responsibility for the debt and banking system of all of Europe.

From the very beginning when the committee in charge of creating the Euro came to our WEC in London, I warned that (1) there would be no single interest rate, and (2) without a debt-consolidation, the Euro would NEVER compete with the dollar and ultimately fail. The success of the USA was primarily (1) a single language, and (2) Alexander Hamilton consolidated all the debts of the member states making it the national debt federally. ONLY federal debt is at reserve status. Whatever California does is on them. Their bankruptcy does not threaten the entire country or the status of the dollar. California is no different from Bangladesh who also can issue debt in dollars. This proves the issue is NOT a single currency. The issue is the STRUCTURE!

In the EU, because the debts were never consolidated, then the failure of one brings down the whole because each member state is RESERVE status. The 50 states and municipalities in the USA can issue whatever debt they want in dollars and their status economically is no different than Bangladesh, Brazil, of Beruit issuing its debt in dollars.

There is the EURO CRISIS as Brussels has tried to be half-pregnant. That is why the Euro is doomed! It is STRUCTURE one for all (sometimes to a point) but one can take down all.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 11 июн 2018, 23:50

I wonder myself what we are going to face. I used to sit down and have intelligent conversations with heads of state. Today, I am not sure that is even possible. The quality of politics has declined like a bear market. CNN has totally forgotten that the President of the United States is an “institution” and not a person. They have reduced politics to a mud wrestling contest. I do not know anyone who would be qualified to be President who would dare to enter the ring after what CNN has done to Trump. The rumors are that his wife does not want to appear with him because she is torn apart for whatever she wears, says, or fails to do.

What comes after Angela Merkel will most likely be more authoritarian. In America, we are burdened by the Puritan culture. The incident at the Superbowl when Justin Timberlake appears to deliberately expose the breast of Janet Jackson sparked hearings on Capitol Hill. We have had people like the Vice President and former Attorney General Ashcroft cover up bronze statues of Justice because their breasts are bear. Just about every fountain in Rome has some image of bare breasts and nudity. If the Trivia Fountain were in Washington, they would cover it up with a tarp and hold hearings for months on whose idea it was to display such nudity.

I had a friend who is a policeman and he applied for an elite squad. They wanted a list of every girlfriend he had back into high school. Who can remember every name that far back?

The future of politics looks to be very grim. The press in America has destroyed the office of the President. What comes after Trump can ONLY now be a hand-picked bureaucrat who the press will support. Nobody else need apply. That will enrage many and result in civil unrest.

Trump was elected because the faith in government is collapsing. It will NEVER go back to what it was — respectful. What comes after Trump looks to be an attempt by the press and political class to take the country back from the people. This will most likely result in a wave of a rising civil unrest and ultimately the breakup of the United States. We will see similar trends in Canada and Europe.
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