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Сообщение Mikhael » 25 сен 2018, 07:39

There is a serious economic crisis brewing that few seem to be paying attention. According to a new survey from Zillow Group Inc. (ZG – Get Report), approximately 22.5% of millennials ages 24 through 36 are living at home with their moms or both parents, up nine percentage points since 2005 which was 13.5% and the most in any year in the last decade. Between the student loans which cannot be discharged thanks to the Clintons (to get the support of bankers) even after they find that degrees are worthless when 60% of graduates cannot find employment with such a degree and the fact that taxes have escalated to nearly doubling over the last 20 years that is predominantly state and local, the affordability of buying a home has been fading fast. Despite the fact that millennials are eager to enter the real estate market, they’re bearing the brunt of the challenge directly caused by the combination of taxes and nondischargeable student loans.

Sixty-three percent of millennials under 29 cannot afford the cost of homeownership, according to a CoreLogic and RTi Research study. The expense, in fact, is their No. 1 reason for remaining a renter. In their research, they concluded that one-third of millennial renters reported feeling they cannot afford a down payment to buy a home. This is a sad response that is not being taken into consideration by governments. Where home prices have not risen sharply, taxes have. First-time homebuyers face ever-growing challenges to find and buy affordable entry-level homes as the economics of inefficient governments at the state and local levels have refused to reform and raise taxes to meet pension costs they promised themselves. California and Illinois are just two major examples at the top of the list. It is this net affordability factor that has begun to encumber sales of real estate softening prices and turning many millennials into renters rather than home buyers. Then add the rise creep up in interest rates and we have an economic cocktail of taxes that is beginning to kill the real estate market in a slow death drip by drip.

Taxes and the rise in interest rates will further erode affordability and is beginning to slow existing-home sales in some markets already. As this trend continues, home prices and mortgage rates over the next year will likely dampen sales and home price growth. There was another study conducted by Freddie Mac which also found that affordability challenges are contributing to a downtrend in young adult homeownership.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 23 ноя 2018, 08:41

Goldman Sachs Going Down on the Pi Target?
The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund sued Goldman Sachs on the Pi Target, Wednesday, November 21st, 2018, for allegedly conspiring against the Middle Eastern fund to further a criminal scheme by Malaysia’s scandal-plagued 1MDB. The suit, filed in a New York court on behalf of Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC), names Goldman Sachs as well as former Goldman officials who were charged by the US Justice Department in indictments unsealed earlier this month. “This action seeks redress for a massive global conspiracy on the part of the defendants to defraud and injure plaintiffs,” said the lawsuit, which also named former executives from IPIC and its subsidiary Aabar Investments.

It was Alan Cohen who I believe was in charge of reviewing all deals as head of Global Compliance at Goldman Sachs and now he is at the top of the SEC. I believe he was given the job at Goldman Sachs because he threatened my lawyers to turn over all tapes I had of conversations with the various bankers including Goldman Sachs’ metal desk. It is now only logical that the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund should also name Alan Cohen given he was the head of Global Compliance.

I believe it was Goldman Sachs who paid bribes to Russian politicians to recall Platinum from the market and temporarily stop sales to allegedly take an “inventory” of their stockpile. This sent prices soaring back in 1997. Russia stopped all shipments of Platinum and Palladium in December, was expected to resume exports. The hedge fund Tiger Management, a New York hedge fund back then, announced it sell some of its palladium holdings which it was believed held about one-fifth of the annual world supply of palladium (1.5 million ounces). This was followed by the silver manipulation in 1998 with most of the same firms involved.

The charging documents, unsealed in federal court on November 1st, 2018 refer to an unidentified Goldman executive as an unindicted co-conspirator who approved of the alleged bribery. The street rumor is that happens to be the executive Andrea Vella, who was Goldman’s co-head of Asian investment banking. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs suspended him the very same day that prosecutors unsealed the criminal complaints. It was also Andrea Vella was had to respond to cross-examination from Philip Edey QC, who was a lawyer acting on behalf of yet another government accusing Goldman Sachs of questionable dealings. That was the Libyan Investment Authority, which claims the investment bank took advantage of its financial illiteracy back in July 2008.

Let us not forget Goldman Sachs’ role in blowing up Greece and instigating the beginning of the Euro crisis. The crisis was created by a deal Greece struck with Goldman Sachs, that was engineered by Goldman’s CEO, Lloyd Blankfein. Blankfein and his Goldman team helped Greece hide the true extent of its debt, and in the process almost doubled it. The speculation back in 2015 was that Greece would file a lawsuit against Goldman Sachs for creating that debt crisis. There were the personal meetings between Greece and Gary Cohn to do that deal. When the client is a government, it ALWAYS involved the top people.

In 2001, Greece was looking for ways to disguise its mounting financial debt in order to just get into the Eurozone. The Maastricht Treaty required all Eurozone member states to show improvement in their public finances. Greece was heading in the wrong direction and Goldman Sachs came to the rescue. They arranged a secret loan of €2.8 billion and disguised it as an off-the-books “cross-currency swap” that was a complicated transaction in which Greece’s foreign-currency debt was converted into a domestic-currency obligation using a fictitious market exchange rate. They made 2% of Greece’s debt magically vanish from its national accounts. Goldman Sachs charged €600 million euros which was about 12% of Goldman’s revenue for 2001 giving them a record sales year.

Then the deal turned sour in the aftermath of 9/11 attacks when bond yields plunged. They resulted in a huge loss for Greece because of the formula Goldman had crafted to their benefit dictating the country’s debt repayments under the swap. By 2005, Greece owed almost double what it had put into the deal and thus we see the European debt crisis unfold.

Until 2008, European Union accounting rules allowed member nations to manage their debt with these so-called off-market rates in swaps. In the late 1990s, JPMorgan enabled Italy to hide its debt by swapping currency at a favorable exchange rate, thereby committing Italy to future payments that didn’t appear on its national accounts as future liabilities. However, what Goldman did to Greece made Italy look like child’s play.

Goldman Sachs’ share price is going down hard into 2019. The 159 level will be critical on a closing basis for the year. If that is breached, then we could see very major implications for the firm whereby it may no longer survive. There is technical support between 174 and 164. From a cyclical perspective, Goldman Sachs has peaked as an institution as of 2017. It was founded in 1869 and 17.2 x 8.6 = 147.92. That means, in fact, the 2017 closing was the all-time high for Goldman Sachs and this incident is its Death knell. Goldman Sachs may be going down for the count.

•August 2003 – Goldman Sachs creates Mortgage Back Securities & AIG Insures them
•February 2006 – AIG Stops writing CDS on subprime mortgages
•December 2006 – Goldman turns bearish on mortgage/real estate market
•July 2007 – Goldman Sachs demands $1.8 billion in insurance from AIG
•August 2007 – AIG posts $450 million as collateral
•November 2007 – AIG posts $2 billion with Goldman on $3 billion demand
•March 2008 – Goldman Sachs demands $6.6 billion from AIG
•March 2008 – Bear Stearns collapses on 13th
•August 2008 – Goldman Sachs takes a bearish view on AIG on 18th
•September 2008 – Gov’t Bails out Fannie Mae on 7th
•September 2008 – Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy on 15th
•September 2008 – Treasury Hank Paulson bails out AIG to save Goldman 16th
•September 2008 – Paulson emails Congress with TARP 20th
•September 2008 – Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley become banks 21st
•October 2008 – Congress passes TARP on 3rd
•October 2008 – Goldman Sachs demand another $1.3 billion from AIG
•November 2008 – Federal Reserve creates Maiden III for Toxic Assets

Here we have 2007.15 when Goldman Sachs sells precisely at the top of the ECM back in 2007 ABACUS2007-ACI which was a $2 Billion Synthetic CDO. It was then on the Pi Target when the SEC charged Goldman Sachs with fraud back on April 16, 2010, for that very transaction. Any small firm is imprisoned and stripped of its license. But Goldman Sachs has the SEC and the DOJ in its back pocket along with the judges and politicians. Now again on the precise Pi Target Abu Dhabi filed a lawsuit against Goldman Sachs Wednesday (Nov 21) for allegedly conspiring against the Middle Eastern fund to further a criminal scheme by Malaysia’s scandal-plagued 1MDB.

Because we have 3 countries now bringing charges and/or suits against Goldman Sachs, it appears that this will mark the beginning of the end for the firm. When the Euro cracks, they will also be blamed for their role in Greece and the rest of Europe. Don’t forget that Mario Draghi is also ex-Goldman Sachs. When the Euro cracks, there will be a microscope applied to every communication that was ever carried out between Draghi and Goldman Sachs. Every trade they have pulled off will be inspected with its tentacles into the European bond market.

After the government took down Solomon Brothers back in 1991 for manipulating the US Treasury Auctions, Goldman Sachs began a program of buying protection. They allegedly began aggressively funding politicians and then began stuffing their people in key places of government. They have been known as “Government Sachs” among dealers and they have held a power-house political hand in their back pocket. Our model, at least, warns that day is NOW OVER!!!!!!

The computer would have shorted Goldman Sachs if it could. The Global Market Watch has pinpointed a high and it warned this stock was moving into a Waterfall on the Monthly Level. This is one stock to get out of. We will see major new lows next year.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 28 дек 2018, 18:06

That is a question I get often and it seems to me to be up there with is there God and what is the meaning of life? All I can say is the foundation of EVERYTHING is a cycle. Here is how sound travels known as the Doppler effect.
Sunlight also travels in waves. Change the frequency and you get a different effect. There is a cycle to absolutely everything around us. The Arrays are composed of a correlation of 72 individual models. Then there is a global correlation to the frequencies of all other markets. So there is not a single cycle that you can reverse-engineer from an array. It just does not work that way. We simply do cycles differently than most people in the cyclical analysis arena.
So why do they work? Perhaps that is just the key to the universe itself. The earth travels around the universe and reaches the same spot once every 25,800 years. We also are born, we live, and then we die – the cycle of life. Then at the core of everything lies the fractal design within nature. It is more than just a Mandelbrot Set. We have children who are copies of ourselves taking bits of both parent’s DNA and combining them. That is the process of cyclical reproduction by self-referral – the offspring is a DNA copy referring back to the source.
Then there is the Lorenz Stange Attractor which was the fascinating cyclical behavior of weather systems, which of course are ignored by the Global Warming people. In effect, they are no different from the people who executed others who dared to say the earth was round instead of flat. They demonize anyone who denies Global Warming.
Absolutely everywhere we turn, we are confronted with cyclical behavior no matter what the system we have under study.
Just go to the beach and pay attention to the waves which crash upon the shore. Count the number of waves between a large wave and you will suddenly be confronted with a pattern.
Cycle are the blueprint of the Universe. It is how energy even moves. You have brain waves and your heart beats to a cycle. The absence of a cycle means you are dead.
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Сообщение Mikhael » 29 дек 2018, 10:38

QUESTION: Hello Mr Armstrong
I would like first to thank u for all the good information u give to us
i have just a question : why do u write the fed need to increase rates to save the us pensionneers
Not realy clear for me ( and maybe a lot of people)
Thanks again and i wish u a wonderful 2019 year !

ANSWER: The entire problem of lowering interest rates to “stimulate” the economy demonstrates that central banks cannot really manage anything. This theory is based upon the idea that if rates are cheap then you will borrow. They fail to even understand HOW the economy functions. The stock market and the economy has NEVER peaked with the same level of interest rates TWICE in history. If you BELIEVE the market will double you will pay 20% interest for a year. If you do not BELIEVE the market will rise at all, you will not borrow at 1%.
Pension funds were based upon the idea that at 8% you double your money in less than 10 years compounded. The system of a pension cannot function at interest rates of 1-3%. This is why states are raising taxes and going broke. They have to make up the losses on investments. Then throw in the corruption of governments. They directed pensions to be “conservative” and thus must own typically more t6han 50% government bonds up to 85% generally and some are at 100% like Social Security. The lower rates on government bonds, the greater the losses and thus taxes must be raised to compensate for state pensions.
Then, so many funds ran into Emerging Markets to try to compensate for the losses on government bond holdings. Spanish banks ran into Turkish debt which they assumed would become a member of the Eurozone. Turkey was one of the first members of the Council of Europe in 1949, and it became an associate member of the EEC in 1963, joined the EU Customs Union in 1995 and started accession negotiations with the European Union in 2005. However, ever since Erdogan, all negotiations with Turkey to join the EU came to an end in 2017.
Therefore, the Fed realizes that the next crisis is a pension crisis and they need to raise rates to help try to bail out the pension funds. They will not be able to raise the rates fast enough to avoid the crisis coming very rapidly which will contribute to raising tax rates and further suppressing economic growth into the future.
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